Bitcoin has taken a tumble to levels not seen since the first week of August. Various pundits have touted narratives that suggest that the situation of Chinese property giant Evergrande being insolvent is causing the sell-off.
As analysts scramble to attach a narrative to the sell-off, the Bitcoin technical picture suggests that the downside is limited from this point onwards.
Let’s dig in.
As the Chinese property crisis threatens to unravel the legacy financial system, the co-founder of Bitcoin mining firm Great American Mining, Marty Bent, is glad to be holding bitcoin.
Check out the full article here!
BTC in Corrective territory
Bitcoin is in the corrective territory. Last week, we covered the possibility of an interim bearish scenario that would materialise after a retest of the $50,000 resistance.
Since then, BTC/USD plummeted beyond expectations, briefly deviating below the key January S/R level to $39,600.
Notably, the potential 2-day stochastic RSI fractal mentioned in the last newsletter has been disproven due to the strength of selling pressure — opening up lower potential targets on this time frame.
Technically, BTC/USD has deviated slightly below the buy-zone but has not confirmed a bullish reversal on medium time-frames (4-hour). This would spur confidence in a broader relief rally that would once again test the 20-weekly EMA.
If bulls do not show up, one can expect major buying pressure to materialise at the $35,000-$38,000 level, which various bearish analysts have eyed as a probable reversal zone.
Levels to watch
- If $41,000 support holds, expect a relief rally to the 20-weekly EMA.
- Weekly reclaim of $43,600 suggests bullish continuation.
- Otherwise, Buying pressure likely to materialise at $38,000 and $35,000, respectively.
- Move lower would signal cyclical down-trend — $30,000 support would likely mark the bottom for the foreseeable future until an HTF mean reversion completes.
Notably, the sell-off is taking place amidst volatility in legacy financial markets and as concerns about the Evergrande property crisis swirl throughout the financial media. In reality, the crisis reveals that which bitcoiners and advocates of sound money have been preaching for over a decade: the moral hazards of infinite free money multiply over time, creating systemic risks that lead to such events.
While some would argue that the technical picture was the main cause of the retracement, the fact remains that Bitcoin is considered an emerging asset in the realm of traditional finance. As such, the debate among investors as to whether it is a ‘storehold of wealth’ or a ‘risk on’ asset persists for the time being. This is likely a strong reason why bitcoin and crypto analysts closely track the S&P500 alongside the BTC price (aside from the momentary price correlations).
That said, as we’ve covered on multiple occasions over the last two years, billionaire hedge fund legends like Paul Tudor Jones and Ray Dalio have found the ‘store of value’ narrative compelling. This comes as no surprise given that Bitcoin fundamentals actually reflect the scarcity the coin espouses — something legacy finance managers aren’t at all used to.
Indeed, imagine an asset that truly is what it says it is — completely mental in this day and age!
Regardless of what happens in the next few days, Bitcoin is in for an explosive final quarter, and there’s nothing regulators and legacy financial engineers can do about it.
Catch you later.
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