Is the Bull defeated by the Bear?
This will be a quick article, where I will share my point of view on the recent drop in Bitcoin price.
Of course, you want to know if you should shell or not. If the bull run is over and we are getting in the long bear market phase of the cycle. I will tell you what my thoughts are, what I am doing, what my plan is.
Definitely, this is a correction where the price is down over 40% from its ATH. Normally such a drop signals the bear phase of the cycle when we are talking about cryptos.
But where are all the plans and predictions that BTC will hit over $100K and maybe even $320K until the end of 2021?
Did Elon Musks tweet kill the Bull? I am not sure. First of all, I don’t believe that the tweet did all the damage. I believe that because everyone is watching what Elon Musk is tweeting, the same are whales doing. Whales are manipulating the market and they are waiting to do it at the best moment.
Could you find a better moment when you know that everyone is waiting for the next Elon Musks tweet? I can’t. I, like a whale, start selling and pushing the price down.
Yes, I know that we have picked the Pi cycle indicator and that after that, in the previous cycles, we have entered the bear phase.
But there is a big difference from previous cycles. That is the institutional players are getting in the game. The boys from Wall Street know how to play this game harder.
Yes, MicroStrategy is a whale, and they want to buy more so that they have control of the market, and with the share from the market they have, they can start a drop in price and buy the dip. After all, that’s the game.
Additionally, we have 7 months where the price was rising. That was a record. Time to slow down the bulls. A lot of people will panic and sell. Good for the whales. They will buy the dip, accumulate and sell when it gets in a new all-time high.
My belief is that until the end of August, we will be in a state where the bulls and the bears will live together. Then the miracle will happen, and the price will skyrocket and hit a new all-time high. Will it be $75K, $100K, or $320K, we will see.
If I am wrong, then, I should have already sold my cryptos, but I didn’t do it. I will not sell them now. I prefer to wait for the next bull phase in 3–4 years rather than to sell now.
Funny thing is that when the price of BTC was down 9–10%, I was sure that that was a good entry point and that this time (in the cycle), we wouldn’t see a correction of more than 30%. I put some more money in.
What I want to say is that Bitcoin find always a way to surprise you. When you think that it is going in one correction and you are 100% sure about it, BTC does the opposite.
I am about 4 years in the game, and I told you my plan. I hold because I was greedy, and now I have the guts to wait even if it will take another 3–4 years until I cash out. My portfolio has good coins, and it is really unlikely that the coins will vanish.
Furthermore, my conviction is that the peak will occur after October. That is my point of view, my plan. If you follow the same path is up to you.
Welcome to the club and enjoy the ride.