BTC long-term Holder Net Position shows strong hands rule
Bitcoin holders are accumulating more bitcoin. The below chat shows the net position change of long-term holders, i.e. the 30-day change in supply held by long-term holders.
When the net position change is negative, long-term holders are selling coins. Conversely, when the net position change is positive (green), holders are accumulating more bitcoin in anticipation of higher prices and bullish momentum. As covered recently, the same is true of bitcoin miners, who have been accumulating bitcoin since February 2021.
BTC is on The Verge of Making History
BTC/USD is reaching an apex in terms of price compression. The Bollinger band indicator on the 3-day chart suggests that an explosive directional move is on the horizon and will likely be the decisive moment that dictates whether the 6-month-long trend continues higher or enters into corrective territory.
While altcoins have out-performed the blue-chip king crypto for several weeks, such price-action has historically shown itself to be cyclical in nature — i.e. capital flows move from one type of crypto investment to another until reaching their final destination — bitcoin (or stablecoins). This phenomenon occurred in the late summer of 2020, which we covered in detail. Back then, the cycle was more pronounced because there were far fewer inflows into the space.
LTC/BTC Leads The Way?
One clue as to what might happen next can be found in the LTC/BTC pair. While history is no guarantee, it’s certainly a useful tool that offers confluence with a basket of indicators.
In fact, LTC/BTC frequently performs well before bitcoin takes the reigns. This phenomenon has rung true at least three times on a macro-scale, but examples of Litecoin front-running bitcoin can also be found on lower time frames.
That said, LTC/USD has been on a tear since late March, and when seen in the context of a consolidating bitcoin market (above $1 trillion in market cap) and bitcoin hodler and miner accumulation, provides ample confluence for a bullish directional bias moving forward. Of course, investors can argue themselves in and out of any narrative, so price-action remains the defining metric.
BTC Levels to watch:
- Break above $61,800 suggests a move towards $70,000.
- Close below $52,000 suggests a retest of the 20-weekly EMA ($47,000)
- A daily close below $47,000 suggests prices might enter into bearish territory. Unless the FED begins tapering this massive stimulus, the fundamentals won’t change — rendering this prospect unlikely — though still possible).
Ethereum Shows Relentless Strength
Meanwhile, ETH/USD has continued to show immense strength, surpassing mid-term expectations and surging well-passed $4,000. At this stage, it’s just a waiting game until prices stop trending vertically. The ETH/BTC pair increased over 144% in just under 5 weeks and shows no signs of stopping at the time of writing.
Should the pair close a weekly candle above the 0.07 Satoshi level, the next target for Ethereans would be 0.1 Sats. On the flip side, if momentum turns, then bulls will aim to hold 0.058–0.053. All in all, altcoins are booming, but the risk-to-reward might be peaking as bitcoin inches closer to a volatile breakout move.
Bulls lead the way.
Catch you next time.
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