$60k Bitcoin is just the start.
Bitcoin is at a tipping point.
I’ve written about a Bitcoin Supercycle before.
The idea is gaining traction.
It’s igniting debates between Bitcoiners and investors about whether or not it’s actually occurring as we speak.
Bitcoin has standard market cycles based around its halving events.
What’s a halving? — halvings decrease the supply output, cutting the rewards that Bitcoin miners receive in half.
This triggers a bull year followed by three bear or sideways years.
We saw this most recently between 2017 and now.
Bitcoin hit the $20k price point before proceeding to trade down throughout all of 2018 and then sideways for the next two years.
Then, we entered our current cycle.
This is the tipping point.
It assumes we’ve hit a critical mass of users.
This is a new base layer of Bitcoin HODLers that are both more plentiful and more heavily invested than during prior cycles.
These include the Michael Saylors and MassMutuals of the world but also the 6.1 million active Coinbase users and the like.
It’s a mix of both sophisticated and corporate investors and sustained growth among individual Bitcoiners.
Dan Held says a Bitcoin Supercycle means:
Reduction in Supply + Increase in Demand = Number Go Up
The key is that Bitcoin looks different this time.
The supply reduction is driven by that implied critical mass of users and longer-term holders that includes a segment of next-gen institutional buyers.
They’re gobbling up Bitcoin, reducing supply, and creating a cycle of demand that leads to number go up…
Bitcoin has closed within 10% of $60,000 for 10+ days.
It’s consolidating at $60k.
If you zoom out on the month, BTC has done this for even longer with the exception of a single 48 hour period.
So, Bitcoin Supercycle…
Do I think we’re in it?
Short answer — I’m cautiously optimistic we are.
Long answer — the next two or three quarters will determine where Bitcoin goes from here. We’re approaching the halfway point in the typical Bitcoin bull period if BTC continues to behave as we’ve seen in the past.
$60k Bitcoin is the new $20k.
$60,000 might even be the new $3,000… but with an even higher upside than we’ve ever seen.
Winklevii Predict $10 Trillion
To some, this is conservative.
Michael Saylor has tossed around $100 trillion.
Either way, BTC is already 1/10th the way to $10 trillion.
If Bitcoin hits a $10 trillion market cap, imagine what the entire cryptocurrency market cap will look like.
A Bitcoin Supercycle could spur this on.
Imagine what Bitcoin looks like at a $10 trillion market cap…
- More Mainstream Acceptance
- More Public Bitcoin Companies
- More Efficient Bitcoin Mining
- More Crypto Lending Platforms
- More Institutional Investors
- More Retail Investors
- Central Banks Owning Bitcoin
In short, it’s what we see happening now but in an unstoppable way. I’d argue that Bitcoin is already unstoppable.
BUT, at a $10 trillion market cap, the cat’s out of the f*%k^ng bag and there’s no putting it back in. You’re either in or you’re out on Bitcoin at that point.
$288,000 is no random number.
Popularized by PlanB on Twitter, the Bitcoin stock-to-flow (S2F) model sees BTC hitting $288,000 if the current market cycle continues.
It could hit as early as August.
General consensus is that we’re somewhere between 30–50% through the current Bitcoin market cycle.
Another massive run-up is very plausible before this market cycle either turns bearish or levels off.
I’m personally looking more at the entire second half of 2021 as the time to start watching the Bitcoin price with a meticulous eye.
Q3 and Q4 will be crucial.
S2F has tracked well with Bitcoin’s historical price action but we are also approaching intense psychological levels.
Are you prepared for a $100,000 Bitcoin?
If not, start making plans now.
$100k is a price target in PlanB’s S2Fv2 model (yes, he has multiple models). It’s a critical level to consider when looking at the overall market cycle.
$100k is a HUGE psychological test.
What Bitcoin does at the 6-figure unit price could trigger either a sharp parabolic move upward or a temporary pullback as investors take profit.
If it sustains itself upward, then we need to start eyeing $288,000, with several key price levels such as $150,000, $200,000 — $220,000, and ultimately what it does beyond $288,000 if we get there.
Even if Bitcoin does dump at or around $100k, this could be temporary if whale buyers gobble up sellers’ BTC and gather steam for a bigger spike.
Willy Woo has a high price target between $300,000–400,000…
Okay, deep breath.
Let’s be honest with ourselves.
These high price targets are glitzy.
We all want them. BUT, are they realistic?
The answer is “YES, BUT”…
Yes, but we need sustained institutional interest. Yes, but we need increased investment in the cryptocurrency space.
This means further growth for the likes of crypto startups, a Coinbase IPO, ETF products, crypto buying and lending expansion, and so on.
Yes, but we need long-time HODLers to maintain the diamond hands approach of continuing to hold in the face of ridiculous price levels.
It will be difficult for many to pass up profits at some of these levels. Larger holders could make profit takers irrelevant.
Yes, but we need governments and banks to pick a side (embrace or reject). They can’t be neutral on Bitcoin for it to really flourish.
Either embrace Bitcoin adoption or reject it. Bitcoin benefits either way but neutrality could stagnate a rise to the moon.
Yes, but it doesn’t have to happen all at once.
2021 appears to be teeing up Bitcoin for a massive supercycle sized run-up but it’s okay if everything doesn’t happen this time around.
Bitcoin is making headway and, barring unforeseen circumstances, it will be better off than it is today by the time the next halving rolls around.