$70,000 bitcoin by the end of March?
Bitcoin is in a parabolic run-up and continues to show strength.
In February, that strength came into question as selling pressure saw a sharp wipe from $58,366 to $43,081 — a 26% sell-off from peak to trough.
However, the sell-off was front-run by eager buyers, who stepped in before the January peak could get tapped, just 2% above the mark. At that point, bitcoin rebounded and took the entire crypto market with it.
Assuming parabolic continuation after a clean bullish retest (only obvious in hindsight), then the next potential target could be the 1.618/2 fib-extension level, i.e., a price tag between $67,813 and $73,652 — representing an 8% spread.
In the event that bitcoin surpasses all expectations, then the 2.618 level at $83,707 could be the next pit stop, and we’ll be watching this closely in our open telegram channel.
Bearing in mind that bitcoin is likely to be in the second half of this trend, it’s not unreasonable to expect bigger price swings as new money with potentially shorter time horizons piles into bitcoin.
Levels to watch
- Weekly close above $60,000 signals bullish continuation in March
- Close below $50,000 indicates a potential move to the 20-weekly EMA
Does the ETH/BTC bottoming structure have legs?
As you’re aware, the ETH/BTC pair was in a down-trend throughout the (BTC/USD) corrective period in February. But, now that bitcoin is potentially shooting towards higher targets, this could mean that ETH outperforms BTC in Dollar terms again.
The setup is quite simple: ETH/BTC needs to reclaim the pivotal ₿0.036 level on lower time frames first, after which it can attempt a move above ₿0.04 again.
This would bring forward a strong case for multi-week outperformance relative to bitcoin (in USD terms).
Aside from the technical aspect, fundamental tailwinds offer strong impetus for Ethereum going forward. Ethereum Improvement Proposal (EIP) 1559 is scheduled to go live this July, which will change the fee structure ( and solving scalability).
Briefly, the fees will be set by the network (and burned) instead of being set by miners. If markets are forward-looking then one could expect this significant upgrade to be priced in before launch date.
Catch you next time.