The Bitcoin price can stabilize for the time being, but has not yet managed to end its sideways phase sustainably. Increased investments in altcoins allow the BTC dominance to be significantly corrected.
- BTC rate : 34,589 USD (previous week: 34,260 USD)
- Resistances / Targets: $ 35,025, $ 36,097, $ 37,910, $ 39,130, $ 40,407, $ 41,970, $ 43,703, $ 45,710, $ 61,694, $ 77,678
Price analysis based on the value pair BTC / USD on Coinbase
The sideways phase of the Bitcoin price that was used in the previous week continues for the time being. On the upside, the area around 38,000 USD acted as price limiting in the last few days. On the downside, the support area seems to be holding up around USD 34,000 for the time being. A break out of this trading range in the coming trading days should lead to a decision on the direction.
The BTC price continued to move sideways within a USD 4,000 range this trading week. As long as Bitcoin does not fall below USD 37,770 per day’s closing price and thus permanently abandons the EMA20 (red), there are still opportunities for increase back towards the upper edge of the range at USD 37,910. If the BTC price can rise back above the resistance at USD 35,025 in a timely manner and also recapture USD 36,097, the area around USD 37,910 will again move into the focus of investors. If the bulls manage to dynamically overcome this resistance level, the chart image brightens noticeably. The BTC rate should then target the USD 39,130 area again.
Only when Bitcoin dynamically breaks through this resistance mark is a renewed run at USD 40,407 to be expected. If investors regain courage and increasingly rely on a rising BTC price, the likelihood of a price increase increases to the all-time high of USD 41,970. If this chart mark is subsequently surpassed in the long term, an increase to USD 43,703 should initially be planned. The 461 Fibonacci extension from the daily chart runs here. If the bulls can break this resistance level, the next major hurdle awaits at USD 45,710. This price level is taken from the monthly chart. Only when the rally noticeably gains momentum again and the psychological mark of USD 50,000 is overcome will there be an increase in the medium term to the chart targets for 2021 at USD 61,694 and USD 77.
The Bitcoin course recently failed to recapture the psychological resistance at USD 40,000. Bitcoin failed several times to overcome the resistance at USD 39,130 per day’s close and kept turning south. Bitcoin is currently trading in the EMA20 (red) area at USD 34,500. If the BTC rate falls below the EMA20 (red) at the end of the day and also falls below USD 33,770, a correction widening to USD 32,237 is likely. If the bears manage to undercut this important support in the long term, a correction expansion to the purple support line at USD 29,748 should be planned. The area around USD 30,000 currently acts as a strong support, which is why increased resistance from the bulls is to be expected. Only when this support area is clearly undercut.
At this mark on the chart, investors will try again to move the price back towards USD 30,000. If, on the other hand, the selling pressure persists and the BTC rate falls below USD 27,563 at the daily closing rate, a correction expansion towards USD 25,752 should be planned. If the bulls fail to come back here, a decline to the support area between USD 23,887 and USD 23,710 is envisaged. This is where the price gap from the CME futures price and the breakout level from December 25th runs. Should this strong support not stop either, the BTC rate will target 21,892. This bearish price scenario increases the likelihood of a consistency test of the 2017 all-time high of $ 19,884. For the time being, such a strong course correction is to be regarded as unlikely.
Bitcoin dominance on the basis of values of Cryptocap shown
The dominance of the reserve currency missed rising back above the resistance at 69.89 percent this week. As a result, the BTC dominance fell by more than five percentage points to 65.15 percent. The dominance of the key currency is currently one percentage point higher at 66.04 percent. Investors, therefore, used the sideways phase in Bitcoin to increasingly invest in Altcoins again.
The slide below the support at 67.47 percent led to follow-up gifts up to the yellow support range between 65.16 percent and 64.75 percent. This corrected the BTC dominance close to the EMA200 (blue). Today, Wednesday, January 20, the dominance will rise again slightly and is currently trying to recapture the EMA100 (yellow). If the BTC dominance overcomes this first resistance and subsequently rises back above the green resistance area at 66.32 percent, the orange resistance line at 67.47 percent comes into focus again. The EMA50 (orange) also runs here. If this price mark can also be broken dynamically, a directional decision is made in the area of 68.01 percent. The EMA20 (red), which also has a price-limiting effect, runs just above it.
If the bulls manage to break through this resistance, it will be decided at the latest at 69.89 percent whether the market power of Bitcoin can start again towards its annual high. Here is an important resistance in the form of the supertrend in the daily chart. In order to overcome this resistance in the long term, the reserve currency must rise back towards USD 40,000. If the 69.89 percent per day’s closing price is cracked in the course of a resurgent Bitcoin price, the 70.91 percent comes back into focus. However, as long as the Bitcoin price cannot initiate a sustainable movement and continues in its range of the last two trading weeks, its dominance will not be able to rise sustainably back above 70 percent.
If, contrary to expectations, the dominance of the reserve currency rises back above the resistance at 70.91 percent, a march through to the resistance area at 72.01 percent is conceivable. Further price increases in the direction of 72.66 percentage points and 73.64 percent are not expected in the short term.
Increasing investments in Altcoins led to a significantly decreasing BTC dominance in the last 7 trading days. The task of key support at 68.01 percent, which was mentioned several times in the previous week’s analysis, allowed the dominance to be corrected up to 65.57 percent. This support has so far been defended on a daily basis. As expected, the area around 65 percent is a key level of support. If the dominance falls back to the EMA200 (blue) at 64.78 percent and undercuts this important support at the daily closing price, the BTC dominance is likely to return to 64.03 percent.
If this support does not hold up either and the 63.51 percent is also broken dynamically, a price decline of up to 62.02 percent is likely. An important horizontal support and the green upward trend line starting from the low on September 13, 2020 runs here. At this chart mark at the latest, renewed resistance from the Bitcoin bulls can be expected. A further correction of the BTC dominance up to the maximum price targets of 61.37 percent and 60.63 percent is only conceivable when the key currency falls sustainably below USD 30,000. In the short term, a correction below these two support levels is not to be expected.
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