In a study, Genesis Mining examines the bullishness of Bitcoin investors. But the results suggest that the majority of those surveyed tend to have conservative to bearish price prospects.
Genesis Mining is actually known for gigantic mining farms in Scandinavia as well as its cloud mining services. However, the company founded by the German Marco Streng has now turned to mapping the Bitcoin sector. In a recently published study, the company examines market sentiment among 1,000 Bitcoin investors. Mind you, the study participants were all Bitcoin investors with different allocations in BTC. A quarter has invested more than half of their assets in BTC, another 25 percent between 10 percent and 50 percent, 25 percent between one and ten percent, and the rest less than one percent.
The results are mixed and more bearish than expected. After all, 45.5 percent of those surveyed believe that the stock market will deliver better returns than Bitcoin in the next 5–10 years. There is also a wide range among the study participants in terms of the exact characteristics of upcoming bull runs. 16 percent believe that BTC will be between $ 10,000 and $ 20,000 by 2030. A full 10 percent even expect prices to fall and see BTC somewhere between USD 1,000 and 5,000.
About half see the exchange rate over USD 20,000 — with some drastic differences. About 7 percent believe BTC will be anywhere between $ 40,000 and $ 50,000. However, only a small proportion of those surveyed are ultra-bullish: 4.8 percent see BTC at USD 500,000 in 2030.
It is astonishing for market observers that almost half of the study participants assume that the “Orange Coin” will be worth less than or the same as this year. After all, BTC grew 160 percent in 2020. If you also consider that the respondents are Bitcoin investors who have been in the market for more or less a long time, the inclined Bitcoin can actually only wonder if the bearishness.
Because even if BTC just continued to grow at the same rate as before, the cryptocurrency will be at least USD 400,000 by the end of 2030. After all, the average annual growth is around 200 percent.
The overwhelming majority of the study participants see BTC as below 50,000. In other words: 81 percent believe that BTC will only increase in value by 40 percent in the next ten years, although the cryptocurrency has risen many times that year alone. That is amazing.
The main reasons for more conservative price estimates are perceived dangers such as impending regulations and a ban on Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies.
However, the study allows some conclusions. First of all, information and price forecasts like the stock-to-flow model don’t seem to be very common even among Bitcoin fans. There is hardly any other explanation for the bearish stance. For bullish Bitcoiners, however, the study is good news. It shows how much room there is still upstairs. If investors outside of the Bitcoin scene had also been asked, the results would probably have been even more sobering.
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