Bitcoin continues to be bullish this week and is currently only around 4 percent below its all-time high. The increasing strength of many altcoins meanwhile causes a significant decline in BTC dominance.
- BTC rate: $ 19,227 (previous week: $ 18,254)
- Resistances / Targets: $ 19,485, $ 19,884, $ 20,089, $ 21,113, $ 23,887, $ 26,664
Price analysis based on the value pair BTC / USD on Coinbase
The key currency can hold on to its bullish trend this week and will rise by around 6 percentage points on a weekly basis. Depending on the exchange, the BTC price is still three or 4.5 percent short of its all-time high. A price weakness is still not discernible. Bitcoin can now generate a new all-time high at any time. It will be exciting to see whether investors cash in again in 2017 after the price crash from the all-time high that was formed at the time, or whether there is a dynamic attempt to break out. In addition, it is important for investors to take into account that altcoins have also increased significantly in the past as soon as Bitcoin reached a new all-time high. The approaching all-time high in Bitcoin goes hand in hand with a new all-time high in the Dow Jones Index, which rose above 30 for the first time yesterday.
The buying interest currently seems unabated, any price setbacks are absorbed by the market and used for further purchases. If the bulls manage to enter the resistance area between US $ 19,884 and US $ 20,089 and also to overcome the daily closing price, a march through to the 200 Fibonacci extensions at US $ 21,113 should be planned. If this resistance is overcome dynamically, a follow-up movement of up to 23,887 US dollars is conceivable. The maximum price target is still 26,664 US dollars (261 Fibonacci retracements). The investor sentiment is still not to be rated as greedy, and the relatively low Google search queries for the term Bitcoin do not yet indicate the hype as in 2017.
One might think the chances of a successful short on Bitcoin are as good as they have not been for a long time, but there is currently a high potential for a correction. However, all attempts by the bear camp to initiate a sale have so far been countered by buyers on the sidelines. Although the RSI indicator in the daily chart is trading in the overbought area with a value of 82, a look at 2017 shows that this is not a sufficient reason for a sell-off. Unless there is a sustainable reversal pattern, opening new shorts will almost inevitably result in a fail trade. In order to increase the chances of a sustainable course correction, however, a clear wave of sales with high volumes is required. A first bright spot for the bears would be a decline below the support at $ 18,630.
If the sellers can push the BTC rate below this rate at the end of the day, a rate decline of up to 17,845 US dollars must be planned. If this support is also undercut dynamically, the strong support at 17,185 US dollars comes into focus. Even at this price level, renewed resistance from the bulls can be expected. If the seller side manages to break this support at the daily closing rate, some stop-loss orders are likely to be executed and the rate of the key currency will subsequently slide down to the support range between 16,500 US dollars and 16,267 US dollars. If these chart levels do not stop either, the correction could widen to around 15,798 US dollars. If bears manage to break this support, this activates the maximum bearish price target at 14.
For the time being, a further drop in prices below this support level is not to be expected, the interest from institutional as well as small investors is too great. In this area at the latest, the bulls are likely to re-enter the field and make new purchases on the long side. If, on the other hand, this strong support is also undershot by the daily closing price, an expansion of the correction movement in the direction of US $ 14,311 and a maximum of US $ 13,858 should be planned. Lower price targets are unlikely for the time being, the trend towards bullish price development is currently too strong. In order to also achieve the maximum medium-term target price of 13,198 US dollars, a sustainable trend reversal on the crypto market is necessary, which is not yet in sight.
Bitcoin dominance based on values from Cryptocap shown
As recently as last week, the BTC dominance attempted to rise back towards the highs from May 2020. Although the dominance of the reserve currency was initially able to form a new multi-month high at 67.44 percent, it missed the targeted price target of 68.01 percentage points. As a result, there was a significant consolidation, which caused the BTC dominance to plummet by almost 10 percent within 4 trading days. It was not until yesterday, Tuesday, November 24th, that a bullish backlash occurred in the area of the important support level at 60.77 percentage points. Although the dominance is currently rising again towards 62.88 percent, it is now listed below the sliding resistance of the last 200 days (EMA200) (blue) at 62.51 percent.
If the dominance can rise back over the 62.88 percent in a timely manner and thus also overcome the EMA100 (yellow) and EMA200 (blue) again at the daily closing price, an increase of up to 64.03 percent is conceivable. If this resistance is also breached upwards, the resistance at 65.00 to 65.57 percentage points will come into focus again. In order to regain this strong resistance area dynamically, the reserve currency needs to march through to the all-time high of 20,089 US dollars. Then the next important resistances at 66.20 percent and 66.50 percent come into focus as possible price targets. The course high of 67.47 percent is to be seen as the maximum price target for the time being. Only when the BTC dominance overcomes this resistance significantly by the daily closing price increase the chances of a march towards 69,
For weeks it looked as if the reserve currency had the scepter firmly in hand again. The Altcoins had nothing to oppose the Bitcoin price rally. In particular, the resurgent top 10 altcoins turned the tables this week and were able to take significant market share from the reserve currency. This reversal is primarily due to the performance of number 2, Ethereum (ETH), as well as the price explosion at Ripple (XRP).
If the altcoins can use the current sideways phase in Bitcoin for further price breakouts, and push the BTC dominance again towards 60.63 percent, the chances of a sustained consolidation of the BTC dominance increase. If this support is broken on the downside, a correction to the uptrend line at 60.02 percent is likely. If this support line is also consistently undercut, the dominance could correct up to the maximum retrace level. This runs at 58.80 percent. It is therefore important to closely monitor the rate development of the key currency in the coming days. Any breather in Bitcoin is likely to lead to a decline in BTC dominance.
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