According to the analysts of New York’s investment bank, the dollar will fall sharply. This situation stems from the forthcoming US presidential elections and from the slow work on the COVID-19 vaccine. At the same time, analysts point out that Joe Biden, from the Democratic Party, has a significant advantage in national surveys and in swing states. The Democrats can find themselves in a situation in which many of them will be given positions in the Senate and in the House of Representatives. Analysts are unable to fully determine the dollar decline at this time if the Democrats win the elections.
The situation affecting the dollar is also the COVID -19 pandemic and the work on the vaccine for it. The companies that study and analyze the vaccine are delayed in their studies. — If vaccines prove very effective, early research results may be sufficient for the US Food and Drug Agency to approve the medicine,” informs Zach Pandl, an emerging market expert in Goldman Sachs. There are currently several important factors that affect the whole US monetary policy and the value of the dollar.
The unpredictable reaction of the stock market after the victory of democrats can lead to a sharp decline in the stock exchange. Poor vaccine effectiveness will also lead to a reduction in the productivity of US citizens and will further exacerbate the crisis.
To avoid losses that may arise in Q4, analysts recommend that the portfolio be divided into two baskets and that one basket be placed in a long position relative to USD in emerging market currencies: the Mexican Peso, the South American Rand and the Indian Rupee, and the second basket within a long position in developed markets currencies: the Canadian Dollar, the Australian Dollar, and Euro. Another option could be investing in cryptocurrency or decentralized investment programs.
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